What Might China’s Recovery Look Like

China’s economic recovery is underway following a strong public health response to COVID-19. Consensus estimates suggest that while Chinese GDP growth will fall to 2.5% from 6.1% in 2019, with other large  economies entering recession China will once again be the primary source of global growth. China Q1 GDP was -6.8% relative to Q1 2019 – relatively close to the consensus estimate from 57 analysts of a contraction of 6.5%, and materially better than many of the estimates of double-digit contraction. Q1 is seasonally a slower-growth quarter for China, with Chinese New Year. As-of mid-April, signs of recovery can be seen across China, with some schools re-opening, manufacturing PMI rebounding, and people once-again traveling.

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