Three Key Global Markets to See 212% Combined Online Growth in Next Five Years

PARIS, 31^st May 2018 — New research launched today by research organisation IGD and The Consumer Goods Forum (CGF) forecasts the digital future for the food and grocery industry, predicting significant online growth for three key markets:

• UK: online grocery market will grow by 48% by 2022 and account for 7.5% of the total UK grocery market
• China: online grocery market will grow by 286% by 2022 and account for 11.1% of the total Chinese grocery market
• US: online grocery market will grow by 129% by 2022 and account for 2% of the total US grocery market

Due to be highlighted at The Consumer Goods Forum’s annual Global Summit in June, the latest insights identify the online channel as a key investment opportunity in a future that may see more manufacturers using digital to sell directly to consumers, as predicted by 75% of businesses surveyed. With over half (54%) of food and grocery businesses only just starting to prepare and 11% yet to begin future-proofing their brands, IGD has set out its vision of the online store of the future and what it will mean for retailers and manufacturers looking to gain a competitive edge.

IGD anticipates stores will evolve very rapidly to meet shoppers’ changing expectations, enabled by transformative technologies. Based on a series of interviews and a survey of 223 senior industry members across 42 different markets, digital looks to dominate in the coming years in how businesses engage with consumers. Indeed, 78% of respondents think shoppers will use online price comparison services more regularly to switch to the cheapest retailer, while 67% of respondents think shoppers will be able to use a wide range of specialist online retailers supported by a common and consistent delivery service.

Combining industry input and IGD’s global team and experts in online, technology and supply chain, the research summarises that the online store of the future will contain five key features:

1. It will be a shopper’s personal micro store offering individualised and online-exclusive products, personalised promotions, recommendations, advertising and loyalty schemes, with 69% of respondents thinking some retailers will be using personalised pricing and promotions in future. An additional 77% think almost all digital communication to consumers by retailers will be personal.

Simon Mayhew, Online Retail Insight Manager at IGD, said: “AI will help to unlock personalisation. The store’s layout will be dynamic and able to predict the customer’s reason for shopping. So, if you need a meal for tonight, your homepage will display only the relevant solutions. When generally browsing, you will only see the products and pack sizes likely to meet your needs. Many products will only be buyable online where there is no constraint on shelf space, and in high-value categories, there will be customisable products, so you can create your own ideal shampoo or cereal.”

2. It will act as a smart personal assistant, connecting with various devices, preventing shoppers from running out of products and supporting their lifestyle goals. Indeed, IGD’s survey revealed that nearly two thirds (60%) of industry predict automatically re-ordering products will be an established way of shopping for many people in future. The ordering experience will also be inspirational, through personalised planners and sophisticated digital assistants like chatbots, with 71% of respondents thinking some retailers will provide a service to use the data from connected devices to provide personalised dietary requirements.

“Smarter devices will make shopping simpler and more inspiring”, continues Simon Mayhew. “The online store will help stop you running out of products. Shoppers will subscribe to have their favourite products delivered regularly and AI will predict when you may run out and make or suggest a reorder. Household devices, such as washing machines, will connect to your store and reorder when necessary. This will lock in customer loyalty.

“The online store will offer more than just groceries, it will also help around the house. With populations urbanising and tending to live in smaller properties, businesses will offer services that prevent the need for space-hungry appliances, such as home cleaning and laundry.”

3. It will be more efficient for shoppers, easier and quicker to order products. It will be quicker and easier to find and buy products online, with login and payment using facial, voice or touch recognition technology. Shoppers will also incur less waste, with more choice of pack sizes and meal planners that help manage quantities and advise on using leftovers. A better fulfilment service will be on offer with more deliveries, on time and in full and products delivered at the right quality and freshness.

Simon Mayhew says, “For retailers and manufacturers, the online store of the future provides both opportunities and challenges. Data from the online store will guide product development. Retailers will see gaps in their ranges through unfulfilled search requests and have a better understanding of product quality through ratings, reviews and feedback to chatbots. Fulfilment will benefit from robotics and supply chain forecasting will be more accurate. This will mean online pickers have fresher products to select, helping overcome one of the biggest barriers to shopping online. Unattended deliveries to homes, cars, and even ‘straight to the fridge’, will grow in popularity.

“Improvements in service will reduce the number of returns and make deliveries quicker. We will see greater collaboration in the supply chain, including manufacturers pooling resources to sell directly to consumers. However, there will also be new challenges and potential inefficiencies. Shoppers will expect faster deliveries, and this means smaller, more frequent orders.”

4. It will help give shoppers a frictionless combined offline and online shopping experience. It will provide extensive information wherever people shop, bring personalisation to the physical store and help shoppers find and pay for products. The online store of the future will be better integrated with physical stores, creating a frictionless shopping experience. IGD’s research highlights an opportunity for businesses to invest more in this area, with over half (53%) survey respondents saying they haven’t or have just started to fully integrate their online and offline teams.

“Before visiting a physical store, you will be able to look online to check in-store, real-time availability, access product information, get product usage ideas and read reviews”, comments Simon Mayhew. “When you arrive at the physical store you will then benefit from personalised offers and recommendations. An online app will help you find products and pay for your shopping without cash.”

5. It will at times be invisible, with shoppers buying products from shoppable digital content such as videos, photos and social media. In the future, people can be shopping at any time. There will be no limits to when you can be shopping. China has been leading the merging of media, entertainment and shopping, and Europe and North America will follow.

Simon Mayhew comments, “You won’t even need to visit your online store to buy products. Alongside voice ordering, the majority of digital content you see will be shoppable. You could be watching a video or see a still image and just click on it to buy the product.”

The shopper of the future will expect more choice, convenience, inspiration, personalisation and transparency. Shoppers seek many things but above all value, choice and convenience. This remains constant but shoppers’ expectations of how these needs should be met does continually evolve, and IGD predicts online stores will play an essential part in meeting these needs.

Joanne Denney-Finch, chief executive of IGD, said “Grocery retail is seeing an unprecedented amount of change, driven by changing shopper expectations that can be met using transformative technologies. Across the world, online is one of the fastest-growing grocery channels, and with online and offline grocery shopping continuing to merge the online store will be increasingly vital to complement the physical store.”

Peter Freedman, managing director of The Consumer Goods Forum, said, “This report sets out a clear, consumer-centric vision of tomorrow’s on-line shopping experience and gives us all something to aim towards. It ties nicely to the theme of this year’s Global Summit – Consumer Centricity in a Data-Driven World. And it highlights the importance of the CGF’s positive change agenda – such as using new technologies to deliver accurate product information on the digital shelf, designing out product and packaging waste, and retailer-manufacturer collaboration for growth”.

For additional insights into the Online Store of the Future, download free report: http://www.igd.com/futureonline

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About IGD

IGD is a training and research charity for the food and grocery industry. Our in-depth understanding of shoppers, retailing and supply chains is supported by our knowledge of broader topics affecting the industry – health, nutrition, sustainability and economics among them. Our reach is global, with experts based in the UK, Singapore and North America. We invest the money we make from selling our expertise into our charitable activities.

About The Consumer Goods Forum

The Consumer Goods Forum (“CGF”) is a global, parity-based industry network that is driven by its members to encourage the global adoption of practices and standards that serves the consumer goods industry worldwide. It brings together the CEOs and senior management of some 400 retailers, manufacturers, service providers, and other stakeholders across 70 countries, and it reflects the diversity of the industry in geography, size, product category and format. Its member companies have combined sales of EUR 3.5 trillion and directly employ nearly 10 million people, with a further 90 million related jobs estimated along the value chain. It is governed by its Board of Directors, which comprises more than 50 manufacturer and retailer CEOs. For more information, please visit: www.theconsumergoodsforum.com.

For more information, please contact:

Alexandra Crisp
IGD
+44 (0)1923 851 924 / +44 (0)7590 183295
press@igd.com

Lee Green
Communications Director
The Consumer Goods Forum
l.green@theconsumergoodsforum.com