Online Global Growth of 163% Predicted By 2023, Adding $257bn to Food and Consumer Goods Industry

Looking at how companies can respond to this change and how businesses will utilise digital technology to become more relevant, the report explores three digital retail models of the future and predictions for an increasingly digital food and consumer goods industry.

Major grocery ecommerce markets will continue to expand rapidly, growing at almost four times the rate of any other channel. Data highlights from the research include: 

• Asia-Pacific’s online grocery market will grow by 196% by 2023, adding $198bn
• North America’s online grocery market will grow by 152% by 2023, adding $38bn
• Europe’s online grocery market will grow by 66% by 2023, adding $21bn

Asia and North America will lead the way on the rate of growth, with Europe set to develop this channel at a comparatively slower pace. Indeed, grocery ecommerce sales in Asia-Pacific are set to triple over the next five years, with IGD forecasting that in 2023, ecommerce’s share of grocery in Asia (7.5%) will be twice that of North America (3.4%), and close to three times larger than Europe’s (2.5%). 
 

Susan Barratt, CEO at IGD, said: “We are living in exceptional times, with an extraordinary burst of retail innovation, driven largely by digital developments. With this research we explore the global proliferation of retail innovation from three different directions: established players, online specialists and the new ecosystems. We believe that plenty of the new emerging models are set to grow and prosper, which means established retailers will need to work hard and swiftly, either to limit their impact or to emulate them.

“The digitisation of the food and CPG industry has already disrupted and transformed the industry, yet the story has only just begun. To help businesses understand the opportunities and challenges that businesses face, we have identified three retail models that have developed as the food and CPG industry digitises and we project how these business models will evolve.” 

IGD’s new report aims to help retailers and suppliers understand the three digital retail models of the future that will emerge from the digitisation of the food and Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) industry. These models are:

Rapid Evolution

Businesses are transforming their established operations through digital technologies to enhance their stores, reduce costs and improve connection with customers.  

IGD’s predictions for rapid evolution include:

1. Technology-led strategic partnerships will accelerate rapidly. Technology companies will have a much stronger influence on CPG retailing
2. Advanced digital technology will help physical stores close the data gap on pureplay operators
3. The commercial trading interface between established retailers and suppliers will be transformed by AI
4. The most advanced traditional retailers will diversify to become less reliant on selling products
5. Retailers with the best data capabilities will win in the long term by becoming incrementally better every single day

Ecommerce 2.0

The first, mainly standardised wave of ecommerce is fragmenting in a variety of creative new ways to sell and add value. 

IGD’s predictions for Ecommerce 2.0 include:

1. Successful pureplays will diversify offline, either by opening their own stores or forming alliances with traditional retailers 
2. Manufacturer D2C businesses will become a major force and they could be consolidated through a single ordering platform
3. Specialist retailers and marketplaces will proliferate
4. Some logistics companies will evolve to become retailers
5. Social commerce will go global, with platforms integrating with ecommerce to offer more frictionless shopping

Ecosystems

A network of retail and consumer services is emerging, linked by logistics, financial services and technology. 

IGD’s predictions for Ecosystems include:

1. Ecosystem evolution will vary considerably by market
2. More technology companies will evolve into ecosystems, with more major technology businesses broadening their capabilities and services
3. Ecosystems will recruit a growing number of established businesses to get even closer to shoppers and the wide range of products and services they need and want
4. New consumer services will be bolted onto ecosystems (e.g. healthcare, leisure, hotels etc.), connecting as many consumer touchpoints on the path to purchase as possible
5. The centralisation of data and use of advanced technology means that ecosystems will gain real time insights, promoting rapid change, driving greater personalisation for shoppers and raise profitability, a benchmark for all other retail models.

Peter Freedman, Managing Director of The Consumer Goods Forum, said: “While of course growth remains challenging for all of the established players in the industry, many are nevertheless finding that the ongoing disruption presents exciting opportunities. This report presents several ideas for consumer goods and retail companies looking to secure their long-term future, and we’ll be discussing some of these themes at the Global Summit in Vancouver: how scale and agility can impact your business model, how digital technologies will permeate decisions and how new forms of collaboration will help drive the sustainable evolution of our industry.”

For more details about the three digital retail models of the future, download IGD’s free report: igd.com/digitalretailmodels

Notes to editors:

1. IGD is a training and research charity. IGD has a trading subsidiary (IGD Services Limited) which provides a range of commercial services including research and insight on the food and consumer goods industry. The net profits from these commercial services help fund IGD the charity.
2. Grocery eCommerce. Research based on 27 major grocery ecommerce markets across North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific, including the grocery component of ecosystems, 2018-’23, US Dollars
3. IGD has drawn on the knowledge of its global team of experts from London, Singapore and North America, who travel the globe to meet with retailers and manufacturers to see best practice in action and understand how the world of food and CPG is developing.
4. The Consumer Goods Forum (“CGF”) is a global, parity-based industry network that is driven by its members to encourage the global adoption of practices and standards that serves the consumer goods industry worldwide. It brings together the CEOs and senior management of some 400 retailers, manufacturers, service providers, and other stakeholders across 70 countries, and it reflects the diversity of the industry in geography, size, product category and format. Its member companies have combined sales of EUR 3.5 trillion and directly employ nearly 10 million people, with a further 90 million related jobs estimated along the value chain. It is governed by its Board of Directors, which comprises more than 50 manufacturer and retailer CEOs. For more information, please visit: www.theconsumergoodsforum.com
5. Follow IGD’s comms team on Twitter @Comms_IGD and the CGF via @CGF_The_Forum

For further information, please contact:

IGD:

Alexandra Crisp
IGD press office
press@igd.com  
+44 (0)1923 851 924 / +44 (0)7590 183295

CGF:

Lee Green
Communications Director
The Consumer Goods Forum
l.green@theconsumergoodsforum.com